Monday, January 2, 2012

2 January 2012 Somewhere over Irainbow

          I know, I know, Iran is misspelled.  I claim literary license, or privilege.  Whatever it takes to satisfy the internal spell check that keeps pointing out the error is what I claim.  Just in passing, it is less troubling if you sing the phrase.  Perhaps it should go something like this:
          Somewhere, over Irainbow, way up high;
          There’s a drone that is circling, sniffing Iranian skies.
          Unverified by sites like Snopes it searches for the isotopes below it
          Though they may claim its peaceful use, the drones reveal the war-like    truth.
           That’s how we know it.
          The dilemma remains unresolved in the largest scale and at the smallest. 
          Iran is working toward the fabrication of a nuclear warhead.  Every genuine look at the nature of their existing “peaceful” program indicates that they are determined to become the first nuclear power in the Middle East.  They want nuclear weapons to change the balance of power in the region and to alter the current custody of the Islamic holy cities and sites.  These, of course, are best accomplished by the use of such weapons on the Islamic world’s two least favored nations, Israel and the United States. 
          I’m badly torn over how to deal with this.  I suspect that the U.S. will be their first target.  There’s a huge amount of official hatred for the U.S. among the Iranian mullahs, politicians, and military upper echelon.   The populace may want democracy but they want Iranian democracy; not one we attempt, badly, to foist upon them as we did in Iraq.  Israel will be targeted by not hit until the Iranian reach has been demonstrated. 
          Diplomacy laced with economic sanctions is the current approach by the U.S. and the European nations that have the political will to oppose Iran’s nuclear weaponry plans.  These have no effect upon the more fanatical Iranians.  Hardship tends to pull a cohesive nation more tightly together.  Recall North Vietnam and North Korea. 
          A military solution is probably the only thing that will actually delay Iran’s development and deployment of a nuclear warhead.  However, due to the manner in which the research and development facilities are masked and screened by civic structures, mosques, schools, and military bases, a military solution will be extremely costly in human lives.  How many martyrs are we willing to create in order to delay Iranian deployment of nuclear weapons? 
          How many casualties are we willing to accept in order to prove Iran’s leaders are lying about the nature of their program?  How many cities, and which ones will we knowingly sacrifice in order to avoid being the nuclear aggressor?
          I don’t have an answer to any of the questions I’ve posed.  I believe that Iran will target us and deliver nuclear warheads to a terrorist group for delivery and detonation.  They will display their facilities and insist that they had nothing to do with the attacks.  When it comes to Israel, they will pull the trigger and take the credit. 
          I think we are going to have to intervene militarily.  Iran will commit a series of staged provocations internally and on the Persian Gulf.  Europe will fail to provide military intervention or to openly support such action.  The U.S and Israel will be left alone to act in their own defense.  Intervention will harden the internal opinion of the Iranian populace against us as happened when we provided medical care for the Shah in 1979. 
          It is a no-win situation that is going to be bloody.  I know what the likely outcome will be, what the most probable course of action has to be.  I’m glad that I don’t have to pull the trigger on this one.  I won’t condemn the man or woman who has to give that order.

"There's no plane like drone, there's no plane like drone, there's no plane..."

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