Cassi Creek: The past
two weeks have provided us the gamut of winter weather, with cold spells, heavy
rains, snow, sleet, and ice storms. For
most vicinities that is sufficient. For
the Tennessee Valley and the southern Appalachians, there is still part of the
panoply to play out.
The jet
stream has shifted, throwing a trough eastward.
This normal fluctuation has pulled a large cold air mass downward and into
conflict with the standard, Gulf flow.
This is going to trigger the winter tornado season for the Deep South
and other regions in the normal path of the cold fronts these troughs can drag
downward.
The greatest
tornado risk seems to be occurring today.
Tomorrow, we should see heavy rains, some thunderstorms, and the
potential for severe storms, including tornadoes.
Tornadic
activity commonly strikes our region in the evening hours. Visualizing tornadoes in the dark is
difficult in developed areas. Picking
them out in a dark rural area is much, much, more difficult. Add in a network of valleys, mountains, and
forests to watch the spotting difficulty leap upward exponentially.
Tomorrow, the
storms are forecast to arrive here in the afternoon. That makes them easier to spot and
track. The weather service office in
Morristown does a great job tracking radar signatures, and getting out
warnings. But spotter information can
really amplify path prediction when the storms touch down and become life
threatening rather than just potential danger.
The ground is
saturated and the trees have already been subjected to high winds. The NWS has also issued a high wind advisory
for our area, mostly over the border into North Carolina, but still likely to
affect us as well. We really don’t need
any blow downs this week.
The forecast
for Thursday morning suggest some snow showers during the time I need to be on
the road into Mt. Home. We shall see what
the rest of the working week brings us.
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