Saturday, March 5, 2011

5 March 2011 Looks like we’re in for nasty weather!

We spent last week watching the water rise in the creek and then outside the creek. Yesterday was the first day since the last overflow when the flow was seasonally appropriate.

Imagine our joy when yesterday’s (and today’s and tomorrow’s) high wind watch was augmented by a NWS proclamation of a flood watch. The last 24 hours have been the windiest I have documented. The base rate has remained no lower than 5 mph with an average of 10 MPH. The highest sustained winds were 18 MPH with the highest gusts reaching 25 MPH.

When you are surrounded by trees that reach 100 feet in height or more, the winds become a matter of real concern. We’ve had one power outage due to falling branches breaking our drop line already this year. I’ve written before about the sound generated by the wind coming down the valley from the ridge crest. Yesterday and today, there is a nearly continuous lower frequency rumble and roar with intermittent whining as the wind blows around wires, cables, and parts of the house. As the daylight fades, the keening nature of the sound becomes more noticeable. The roar is somewhat complemented by the sounds from the three wind chimes we have hanging on or near the house.

Last weeks’ 1.81 inches of rain left our ground and that up valley saturated. This means that the force of the wind on standing trees will be more likely to uproot some of them that have become weakened by age or disease, or made unstable by being undercut by the creek. We saw some major stream changes last week during the high water period.

Today’s prediction is for a potential 2-3 inches f rainfall with a flood watch beginning today and extending into tomorrow evening. The saturated condition of the valley’s walls along with the steep narrow nature of the valley at this point will lead to a rapid run-off and a short lag time between rainfall and the run-off entering the creek.

The best possible scenario is for the heaviest rainfall to occur tomorrow morning so that we have daylight to observe the effects. The worst case is wind and rain in the dark. There will be no moon light tonight to aid viewing. Tonight is the new moon. We’re on our own out here in the valley. There may be a “bad moon risin’” but we won’t see it rise tonight.

Last night we dined on a variation of Pho – Hue variety. Tonight we will have rotisserie chicken – jerk seasoned.

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